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☆ Woman Could Have Prevented Great Recession; Ignored by Wall Street Men
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-04 | by ( Josie Cox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +21 min

The story of Brooksley Born is not only the tale of a remarkable regulator whose Cassandra-like warnings — if heeded — could've prevented the great financial crisis from exploding into raging, ruinous enormity. Not long after she assumed chairmanship of the CFTC, Born started to feel a lingering unease with the rapidly expanding derivatives market. So to Rubin, Born was more of an inconvenience than anything, and she certainly wasn't in his club. Not long after, Treasury officials lobbied Congress to pass legislation preventing the CFTC from being able to regulate the OTC derivatives market. In the months and years that followed, it became increasingly hard to deny that the multi-trillion-dollar OTC derivatives market was the root cause of the great financial crisis.

Persons: Lehman Brothers, jolting, — could've, It's, Potter Stewart, Henry Edgerton, Porter, she'd, Bill Clinton, Clinton, Janet Reno, Brooksley, Michael Greenberger, Born, Gibson, weren't, Robert Rubin, Goldman Sachs, Rubin, Michael Hirsh, Alan Greenspan, Greenspan, Ayn Rand, Hirsh ., Hirsh, Greenspan didn't, braggadocian machismo, lauding Rubin, Lawrence Summers, Arthur Levitt, Josie Cox, Levitt, Summers, Jim Leach, Richard Lugar, —, Bethany McLean, Joe Nocera, Bob Rubin, Born's Cassandra, George W, Bush, Lauren Rivera, Christine Lagarde, Lehman, ABRAMS Organizations: Stanford University, Stanford Law School, Stanford, Appeals, District of Columbia Circuit, Arnold, Futures Trading Commission, American, CFTC, Bankers Trust, Procter, Gamble, Sumitomo, Federal Reserve, Fed, Securities and Exchange Commission, Financial Markets, Abrams, Term Capital Management, Enron, SEC, Born, Northwestern's Kellogg School of Management, Financial, International Monetary Fund, Lehman Brothers, Reuters, Street, The Washington Post, Guardian, Abrams Press Locations: California, Vietnam, United States, Washington, America, ABRAMS , New York

☆ The stock market debate is trapped in the '90s with both bulls and bears drawing comparisons
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-10 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

Value-investing asset manager GMO last week published a study showing that the top ten S & P 500 stocks by size have handily beaten an equal-weighted pool of the other 490 for several years now. Neither is Microsoft, a useful indicator give that it was the largest stock by market cap both in December 1999 and today. Indeed, today the stock market has done well even as expectations for the speed and depth of rate cuts this year have diminished. (Industrials are leading, the equal-weight S & P is up 19% from October and there were 204 new 52-week highs on the NYSE Friday over 24 new lows.) The S & P 500 uptrend has for weeks targeted the 5050 area, as an immediate culmination point, and it's just about there.

Persons: Morgan, Marko Kolanovic, —, Janus, Stocks, it's, Alan Greenspan, Greenspan, Jerome Powell, Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Jurrien, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Nvidia, Cisco, Nasdaq, Cisco Systems, Microsoft, Fed, Netscape, Boston, NYSE Locations: Russia, It's, Orange County, Calif

☆ The Fed itself is the biggest risk to a soft landing for the US economy, top economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-24 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The Fed is the biggest risk to a soft landing for the economy, former Fed official Claudia Sahm said. The Fed is the biggest risk to the soft landing." Instead, an "unnecessary" recession created by elevated interest rates would be far worse. Advertisement"The idea that the worst thing that the Fed can do is cut and then raise is dangerous," she wrote. For the Fed to reverse its rate cuts wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, Sahm said.

Persons: Claudia Sahm, —, Chris Waller, Raphael Bostic, Sahm, Paul Volcker, Alan Greenspan, Jerome Powell, that's Organizations: Service, Atlanta Fed, Fed

☆ Yardeni worries the Fed could fuel an 'irrational exuberance' bubble with rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The Federal Reserve is risking a dotcom bubble-like market problem unless it lowers Wall Street's expectations for interest rate cuts, widely followed market strategist Ed Yardeni said. Yardeni is worried that aggressive Fed easing "risks fueling irrational exuberance," a term that former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan coined in 1996 for the runup in stock prices ahead of the dotcom bubble bursting. Those developments come a little more than a week ahead of the Fed's next policy meeting Jan. 30-31. "The Fed's last big mistake was falling behind the inflation curve in 2021 and early 2022," Yardeni said. "The Fed's next big mistake could be inflating a speculative stock market bubble.

Persons: Ed Yardeni, Jerome Powell, Alan Greenspan, we've, Powell, Yardeni Organizations: Federal, Yardeni Research, CME

☆ Here’s what the S&P 500’s summer hot streak can teach us about the late 2023 rally and its staying power
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-02 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

In the final run-up to the late-July peak in stocks this column surveyed the rally , and asked, "Enough for now? .SPX YTD line The S & P 500's year-to-date performance Yes, the market is overbought by various technical measures. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo and Barclays are seeing the S & P 500 as dead money next year, at best. The virtues of owning the S & P 500 passively have always been low cost, tax efficiency, low turnover and broad exposure to the asset class. While 2021 was a Nasdaq 100 melt-up year, 2022 was the mirror image: Big Tech got blasted and the equal-weight S & P 500 held up better.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Wells, Jack Bogle, Alan Greenspan's Organizations: Federal, Deutsche, Deutsche Bank and Bank of America, Barclays, Hamas, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Meta, Apple, Microsoft, Big Tech, matchless, Treasury Locations: Wells Fargo, Israel

☆ Opinion | The Fed Could Inadvertently Get Trump Re-Elected. Should It Care?
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The names Joe Biden and Donald Trump are scarce on the website of the Federal Reserve. When they do appear in a document, it’s rarely something said or written by a Fed governor or staffer. Phillips, a defunct economist from New Zealand who gave his name to the Phillips curve, which compares inflation and unemployment, is all over the Fed website — “Your query for ‘A.W. The Fed can swing the economy, and the economy can swing elections. But there’s nothing usual about this election because there’s nothing usual about Donald Trump, the likely Republican nominee.

Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, ” —, Phillips, A.W, Phillips ’, ”, that’s, George H.W . Bush, Alan Greenspan, “, ” Bush Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Federal, Republican Locations: New Zealand

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda attends a press conference after its policy meeting in Tokyo, Japan October 31, 2023, in this photo taken by Kyodo. In addition, interest rate changes were asymmetric — Fed rate hikes following stock market recoveries were usually muted compared with the initial cuts. This was an explicit, open-ended policy to hold the currency at a set level and flood the Swiss economy and markets with oceans of liquidity, but essentially still a central bank put. As Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex points out, it is financial stability that is ultimately - and rightly - at the heart of the so-called central bank put. "There is a perception or myth that has built up around the central bank put.

Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Alan Greenspan, Louis, William Poole, Greenspan, Steven Englander, Marc Chandler, Chandler, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Japan, Kyodo, REUTERS Acquire, Rights, Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, Louis Fed, Swiss National Bank, Standard Chartered, National Bureau of Economic Research, Swiss, Reuters, Bannockburn Global, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Rights ORLANDO , Florida, New York, Switzerland, Swiss, Bannockburn

☆ America’s Debt Crisis Burns While Congress Fiddles
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Tim Smart | ) www.usnews.com time to read: +9 min

Last month, the Penn Wharton Budget Model from the University of Pennsylvania came out with an analysis of the debt crisis entitled “When Does Federal Debt Reach Unsustainable Levels?”Their answer? The concern is that punting the problem into the future, continuing to raise debt even as interest rates rise further or hold at higher levels for longer, the debt will grow even faster in a “snowball” scenario. Similar proposals have been offered over the years but at the same time they seem to lack political support – indeed, Republicans have recently voiced the idea of cutting Social Security. The debt crisis is rapidly worsening at a time when the bond market is having its own set of problems. A recent government auction of debt, an occurrence that is becoming more common as the U.S. borrows more, saw weak demand.

Persons: Dick Cheney, Richard Neal, Democrats –, Blu Putnam, Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, Jerome Powell, ”, Gene Steuerle, Richard B, Fisher, probity, Kevin McCarthy, Kent Smetters, Boettner, Smetters, Richard Robis, Donald Trump Organizations: Capitol, Democratic, Massachusetts, The New York Times, Federal Reserve, Partisans, Democrats, Fed, CME Group, Social Security, Medicare, Urban Institute, California Rep, Penn Wharton Budget, University of Pennsylvania, University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, Wharton, Social, Republicans, Treasury, Hamas, BCA Research, White House Locations: U.S, United States, Washington, China, Japan, Israel

☆ Why an economic soft landing may prove elusive
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( Edward Chancellor | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

His latest book, “You Always Hurt the One You Love: Central Banks and the Murder of Capitalism”, won’t make him any friends in monetary policymaking circles. The Fed responded by reducing interest rates to zero and employing various tools to lower bond yields. These economic imbalances prevented central banks from returning interest rates to normal levels. Unless, that is, liberalising economic reforms are enacted that boost productivity and allow interest rates to rise. Bernard Conolly’s book, “You Always Hurt the One You Love: Central Banks and the Murder of Capitalism” was published in hardback in September.

Persons: Bernard Connolly, Connolly, won’t, they’ve, Michael Woodford, ”, Alan Greenspan, staved, Lehman, Edward Chancellor’s “, Bernard Conolly’s, Peter Thal Larsen, Streisand Neto, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, European Monetary Union, European Commission, Banks, U.S . Federal, stoke, Lehman Brothers, Fed, Reuters Graphics, Treasury, Securities, Thomson Locations: U.S, United States, British, Europe, American, “, ”, disequilibrium, intertemporal, Central

☆ Bank of England warns U.S. tech stock valuations may be out of whack
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

People walk outside the Bank of England in the City of London financial district, in London, Britain, January 26, 2023. Valuations for U.S technology stocks may be too high given the current macroeconomic backdrop and spike in rates, according to the Bank of England. "Given the impact of higher interest rates, and uncertainties associated with inflation and growth, some risky asset valuations appear to be stretched," the BoE's financial policy committee said Tuesday. "Stretched risky asset valuations increase the likelihood of a greater correction in prices if downside risks to growth materialise." To be sure, this isn't the first time that a central bank has warned of valuations over the years, but as a general rule, central bankers would rather not offer an opinion on any specific market price.

Persons: BoE, premia, Ben Bernanke, Lehman, Alan Greenspan, Greenspan's, — CNBC's Scott Schnipper Organizations: Bank of England, Microsoft, Nvidia, Lehman Brothers Locations: City, London, Britain, U.S

Renewed manufacturing growth will boost industrial energy consumption, especially for diesel, but with inventories still low, prices are set to escalate rapidly, rekindling concerns about inflation. SOFT LANDING? The mid-cycle slowdown or “soft landing” of 1989/90 and the cycle-ending “hard landing” of 1990/91 are usually considered as one episode. Blinder has argued the Federal Reserve would have achieved a soft landing if oil prices had not spiked for unrelated reasons. Related columns:- Global diesel shortage boosts prices (September 13, 2023)- Prolonged U.S. manufacturing slowdown barely dents energy use (September 5, 2023)- U.S. diesel prices surge anticipating a soft landing (August 11, 2023)- U.S. manufacturing slowdown fails to rebuild diesel stocks (August 2, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

Persons: Bing Guan, Alan Blinder, Blinder, Saddam Hussein’s, ”, Saddam Hussein, Alan Greenspan, John Kemp, Alexander Smith Organizations: Angeles Refinery, California Air Resources Board, Institute, Supply, Federal Reserve, Reserve, Global, U.S, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Angeles, California, Carson , California, U.S, Kuwait, Blinder, United States, Europe, China

Families are "squeezing to make ends meet," caught between rising prices and a lack of accessible child care, Kim Bracey, chief executive of the YWCA York, told Powell. Julie Keene, owner of Flinchbaugh’s Orchard, zeroed in on inflation, and pressed Powell on the uncertain environment businesses have having to navigate. In conversations with shopkeepers, Powell and Harker focused on aspects of the businesses and the owners' backgrounds - not inflation or the impact of interest rates. Speaking with Reuters ahead of their arrival at her shop she said high interest rates were pressing her hard. "I mean, lower the interest rates," she said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Evelyn Hockstein, Powell, Kim Bracey, Julie Keene, Keene, Bracey, Gallup, Alan Greenspan, Patrick Harker, Michelle Wright, Mane, Wright, Harker, Drayden, Jennifer Heasley, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Monday, YWCA York, Philadelphia Fed, Luxe, York Central Market, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Pennsylvania, York , Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Flinchbaugh’s Orchard, zeroed, Keene, Powell

☆ Jim Cramer’s guide to investing: Examining 1987’s historic crash
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( Julie Coleman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

CNBC's Jim Cramer said he thinks investors not only need to know what to do in case of a market crash or enormous sell-off, but why the crisis might be occurring. Over the course of Cramer's decades-long career, he said he's seen only two "truly horrifying" sell-offs: the crash of 1987 and the rolling crash of 2007 to 2009 during the financial crisis. To Cramer, the crash during the Covid-19 pandemic doesn't compare to either of these because the market rebounded immediately. But Cramer noted a difference between the two, saying the crash in 1987 wasn't caused by an overarching failure of the economy. But during the financial crisis, the market took years to recover, not bottoming until 2009 after the Dow initially plunged in 2007.

Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, he's, Cramer, wasn't, Dow, Alan Greenspan Organizations: Federal

He called the U.S. central bank's misreading of the issue "a major failure" that can mar analysis of where the economy stands. Since 2016, policies from the vastly different Trump and Biden administrations have combined in a sort of accidental complementarity to keep both job and economic growth above the Fed's estimate of potential. Median Fed policymaker projections of potential U.S. economic growth have slid from a level around 2.5% a decade ago to 1.8% as of June 2023, when the last projections were issued. Under pressure from colleagues to raise interest rates as the economy accelerated, Greenspan resisted and accommodated the expansion instead of fighting it. But it could help economic growth continue even as prices cool, another prop for the "soft landing" the Fed hopes to engineer and possible evidence of rising potential.

Persons: John Williams, Joe Biden, Adam Posen, Donald Trump, Trump's, Biden, Dana Peterson, Peterson, Jerome Powell, Board's Peterson, Alan Greenspan's, Greenspan, Jackson, John Fernald, Huiyu Li, Michael Feroli, Antulio Bomfim, Powell, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, New York Fed, San Francisco, Fed, Reuters, BlackRock, Bank of England, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Trump, Biden, Conference Board, Jackson, San Francisco Fed, JPMorgan, Trust Asset Management, Thomson Locations: U.S, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Washington

If the U.S. economy has a "soft landing" - no recession this year with inflation near target, and only a mild downturn next year with unemployment staying historically low - Jerome Powell may lay claim to being the most successful Fed chief in history. Powell was frequently on the receiving end of public lashings from his then boss - "Clueless," "horrendous lack of vision" and "pathetic!" "Kudos to Powell if he can achieve a soft landing. Greenspan, dubbed 'the Maestro' by his admirers, was Fed chief from 1987 to 2006. Not only that, his 36% rating was the lowest of any Fed chair since the survey series began in 2001.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Janet Yellen, Donald Trump, Trump, Paul Volcker, Alan Greenspan, Volcker, Greenspan, Joe LaVorgna, Alan Blinder, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Hatzius, Joe, Jamie McGeever, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Powell's, Republican, Nikko Securities, Trump White House, Reuters, New York Fed, Gallup, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, U.S

☆ Cramer: The Cassandras are wrong about the market (again) — here's why I'm upbeat
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-16 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +14 min

The impossibility of any company doing anything right, or as right as the market seems to judge, serves as the only homily worth offering. You simply don't land at all. Of course, the biggest worry to this market is its two-tiered nature: The mega-cap techs versus all the rest. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.

Persons: Warren Buffett, It's, Jerome Powell's, Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, Powell, deride Powell, —, it's, Wells, Vin Diesel, he'll, Goldman Sachs, Amy Hood, Tim Cook's, Mark Zuckerberg's pickleball, Clive Cussler, Stephen King, Lina Khan's, Jonathan Kanter, Khan, Morgan, let's, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Victor J Organizations: Apple, Wells, JPMorgan, PepsiCo, Treasury, Bank of America, Microsoft, Activision Blizzard, Nvidia, Intel, Devices, Colgate, Federal Trade, Activision, Justice Department, sycophantic, Fed, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Visitors, New York Stock Exchange, Blue, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: People's Republic of China, China, Wells Fargo, America, New York

☆ Opinion | Can Social Security Be Fixed Forever?
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

In 1983, the main Social Security trust fund came within months of being exhausted. Max Richtman, the president and chief executive of the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare, told me he thinks it’s too long. He wrote in a recent Substack post that even 75 years isn’t long enough to look ahead. That’s three times the size of the gap in today’s dollars when projecting ahead 75 years. Making Social Security safe for only 75 years effectively assumes that all beneficiaries will “conveniently expire” at the end of the 75th year and so won’t need checks, he said.

Persons: Alan Greenspan, Max Richtman, it’s, ”, “, he’d, Laurence Kotlikoff, I’ve, there’s, Steve Laffey, Kotlikoff, aren’t, ” Laffey Organizations: Social Security, National Committee, Preserve Social Security, Boston University Locations: Cranston, R.I

☆ The Fed is the only thing standing in the way of a sustained bull market in stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The current bull market in stocks looks sustainable as long as the Federal Reserve doesn't mess things up. The firm highlighted that the S&P 500's 25% rally from its mid-October low has all the hallmarks of a long-term secular bull market rather than a short-term cyclical bull market. That fact favors the idea that the current bull market in stocks is more secular in nature than cyclical, according to the note. As a result, the Fed represents the biggest risk to the stock market, which is the case whether the Fed cuts or continues to raise interest rates. With interest rates sitting at more than 5%, all eyes will be on the Fed's next interest rate decision at its July FOMC meeting.

Persons: Ned Davis, —, it's, Alan Greenspan, Stocks, Jerome Powell, Burns, Miller Organizations: Federal, Ned Davis Research, NDR, Service, Federal Reserve, Fed, Term Capital Management

☆ Interest rates have broken the global wealth pump
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( Edward Chancellor | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Rising inflation and higher interest rates would appear to make matters even worse. In the United States, immigration and the offshoring of manufacturing has undercut the power of labour. Ultra-low interest rates proved the greatest wealth pump ever devised, loading the dice in favour of the financial elite. Since the turn of the century, when the Federal Reserve under Alan Greenspan reduced interest rates to a new post-war low, wealth has consistently grown faster than GDP. That’s where higher interest rates come in.

Persons: Leonard Cohen, Peter Turchin, “ cliodynamics ”, Clio, Turchin, Hong Xiuquan, Andrew Carnegie, Henry Clay Frick, ”, Donald Trump, ” Turchin, Alan Greenspan, Peter Thal Larsen, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, Times, Elites, Steel, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Wall Street, Federal Reserve, McKinsey Global Institute, McKinsey, Thomson Locations: United States, France, China, Taiping, Japan

The Reserve Bank of Australia seems to have executed a one-meeting 'skip', but perhaps more by accident than design. Leaving open the possibility in July of another 25-basis-point hike two months later could prevent financial conditions from loosening too much. The Fed wants policy to be restrictive, and financial markets to move accordingly. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Philip Jefferson in recent weeks have introduced 'skip' and 'skipping' into Fed-watchers' lexicons. Until then, a pause was generally assumed to lay the ground for rate cuts, not a resumption of rate hikes.

Persons: Alan Greenspan, John Silvia, Silvia, Jerome Powell, Lorie Logan, Powell, Patrick Harker, Christopher Waller, Philip Jefferson, Price, Lou Crandall, Wrightson ICAP, Jamie McGeever, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Reserve Bank of Australia, Dynamic, Fed, Dallas, Philadelphia Fed, Consumer, Index, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida

LONDON, June 1 (Reuters) - Even if the U.S. dollar's singular dominance as global currency of choice is in fact ebbing, it may not automatically lead to a weaker dollar exchange rate - and could periodically mean the opposite. The big advantage of large dollar reserve holdings alongside wide commercial usage and trade in dollars overseas was clear. But the issue is typically read in markets as a reason to bet on a weakening dollar exchange rate - or even to pump alternatives such as gold or crypto tokens. Of course, that was a global economy riven with fixed dollar exchange rate pegs that supercharged the transmission of Fed policy, most of which have since been dismantled. That may be a world many countries prefer if they are sure of viable alternatives - but may not mean a weaker dollar.

Persons: chomping, Alan Greenspan's, Janet Yellen, Yellen, Mike Dolan, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: Federal, OASIS, Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: U.S, United States, Washington, China, Ukraine, Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa, Iran, Venezuela, outflows

☆ BofA says AI is in a 'baby bubble' that echoes the dot-com era, and one move could easily blow up the investment frenzy ignited by ChatGPT
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-20 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

What could burst the bubble is the Fed pausing rate hikes and then restarting the cycle. AI is in a "baby bubble" for now, Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America Global Research, wrote on Friday. The Fed may be on the way to pausing its run of rate hikes at its June 14 gathering. The dot-com bubble popped nine months later. "AI = internet," wrote Hartnett.

☆ Americans' confidence in Powell hits a low mark for a Fed chief, poll shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell holds a news conference after the release of U.S. Fed policy decision on interest rates, in Washington, U.S, May 3, 2023. Just 36% of respondents to a Gallup poll taken last month said they had either a "great deal" or "fair amount" of confidence in Powell. That downswing has played out alongside a surge in inflation that Powell and other economic leaders were slow to recognize and take action against. Powell, though, was not alone in seeing the U.S. public lose faith in his capabilities. The poll also found declining confidence in congressional leaders from both parties.

As a member of the Fed's Board of Governors a decade ago, Powell called certain possible debt default responses by the Fed "loathsome." Accepting defaulted securities as collateral for Fed loans, or swapping "good" federal debt already held by the Fed for impaired debt held by private investors, would be an extreme variation on the theme - yet one that may prove less "loathsome" than the alternative economic collapse some predict would follow a default. To a central bank, with no budget constraint and an elastic time horizon, it's just a matter of waiting out the politicians. Powell joined the Fed in 2012 from a think tank where he focused on debt and deficit issues. A debt default may pose another tough decision for a Fed chair who's motto could well be to never say never.

LONDON, April 26 (Reuters) - Oil prices have fallen back after a brief spike triggered by the surprise production cuts announced by Saudi Arabia and other members of OPEC+ on April 2. ROUTING THE BEARSIf one of the objectives for Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+ allies was to drive bearish hedge funds out of the oil market, it seems to have succeeded. Following the cut, however, the number of short positions was reduced further to just 78 million barrels by April 11, near to its post-2010 low of just 65 million. In the past, Saudi Arabia's oil minister has described surprise production cuts intended to discourage hedge fund short selling as "ouching". Related columns:- Oil prices stall as short-covering rally is completed (April 17, 2023)- Surprise, squeezing the shorts, and revealed preferences (April 3, 2023)- Oil market has fully absorbed impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (March 9, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

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